Inception 01 :- Cuban Missile Crisis:- Nuclear war that never took place.

Inception 01:-

To understand the Cuban Missile Crisis let us focus on a lighter but an important debate, Test Cricket Vs T-20 Cricket. T-20 cricket is the fast, entertaining, and most importantly more profit-making format. On the other hand Test, Cricket is a very tedious game, which is supposed to be played session by session. Sometimes you play a game to win, sometimes for a draw. Similarly, diplomacy is a game that is supposed to be played like a test match. Whenever diplomacy is played like a T-20 game, we have seen a complete disaster.

T-20 Diplomacy 

1)Donald Trump & Boris Johnson during the COVID pandemic.

2)Jawaharlal Nehru during the Indo-China war in 1962

3)Demonetisation of Currency by Narendra Modi

Test Match Diplomacy 

1)Indira Gandhi during the 1971 Indo- Pak war 

2)Cuban Missile Crisis 

In this article, we will focus on a case Case Study of a Test Match diplomacy, Cuban Missile Crisis 

Background:

Cuba is a small island nation near the United States. The capital of Cuba is Havana, Cuba was initially a Spanish colony. Cuba got its independence from Spain in 1998, instead of getting complete independence the control of Cuba was given to the United States. Cuba got its complete independence in 1902. The 2nd world war ended in 1945. The world saw a transfer of power from Great Britain to the USA and the USSR (Soviet Union). The entire world was divided into two blocks, one led by the USA which promoted democracy and USSR promoted  Communism. 

During 1953-1959, the Cuban revolution took place and communism came to power.

The irony that you can see is that the USA, who was preaching the idea of democracy had a communist neighbor. Due to this USA made many futile attempts to change the government in Cuba. Because of communist ideology, USSR supported Cuba and provide protection against the USA.

Moreover, USSR saw Cuba as the most important asset against the USA because of its geological position. During that same time, the USA and USSR were busy making nuclear weapons because of the Cold War. USSR had an efficient short-range and medium-range ballistic Missile but had very inefficient long-range Missile.

This USSR was practically not a nuclear threat to the USA. 

To prevent the continuous invasion of the USA in Cuba, USSR decided to set up a nuclear missile in Cuba. This was also to express USSR’s disappointment regarding the American missile in Turkey and Italy. 

 

The entire match was being played between 3 people. 

1) John F Kennedy, President of USA 

2) Nikita Khrushchev, Premier of Soviet Union (USSR)

3) Fridel Castro, Prime minister of Cuba

Initially, Khrushchev planned to install missiles silently without catching anyone’s attention. However, his plan was under danger because of  Americans U-2 Aircraft. On 29th August 1962, U-2 aircraft detected a new military construction and presence of Soviet technicians in Cuba. The first consignment of R-12 missile arrived on September 8, followed by the second consignment of a medium-range ballistic missile in the same month. 

The Soviet Union we’re building 9 sites

a)  6 R-12 Medium-Range Missile  

b)  3 R-14 Intermediate-Range Missile 

On October 14, the presence of ballistic missile on the launching site was reported and confirmed by U-2 aircraft. USA tried to drag USSR to United Nations but the Soviet Union refused any involvement in Cuba.

John F Kennedy:- No decision is my decision 

The atmosphere in the USA was in a mood of an open war but Kennedy didn’t give up in the pressure. He asked his brother, Robert F Kennedy who was also the district attorney of the USA to take meetings with the key leaders and ask for their opinion.

The meeting was conducted with some new rule

1) Each participant should function as a “skeptical generalist,” focusing on the problem as a  whole rather than approaching it from his or her department’s standpoint.

 Because a Navy was suggesting a naval strike, the airforce was suggesting an airstrike, diplomats were suggesting a bilateral talk with USSR, etc. 

If you have pain in the left elbow and you go to an Orthopedist, he will check for a fracture but a cardiologist will check for heart problems. 

Kennedy wanted everyone to be a generalist rather than a super-specialist and to focus on the complete problem. 

2) To stimulate freewheeling discussions, the group should use informal settings, with no formal agenda and protocol, so as to avoid the status-laden meetings in the White House

Usually what happens is that president comes with some idea and others only retweet it.

3)The team should be broken into sub-groups that would work on alternatives and then reconvene.

4)The team should sometimes meet without Kennedy present, so as to avoid people simply following his views.

This was important because other leaders could not know what the president is thinking. This allowed other leaders to express all the possible scenarios.

The mistake:-  Bay of Pig Invasion  

During his early days, John F Kennedy took a few unnecessary steps in temptation and without proper planning. The USA was concerned with the rise of Fidel Castro and decided to remove him from power. On 17th April 1961, the USA conducted an operation named Bay of Pig Invasion and was carried by the CIA. The operation was such a disaster that within 3 days everyone understood that it was a failure. Many US officer was killed or arrested.

A psychologist named Irving Janis called this as effect named “Groupthink “.

Description

Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. In simple words when someone puts forward an idea everyone agrees with it without thinking because if they oppose it they will be seen as the bad guy or spoiler.

The big question 

The suggestion Kennedy received can be broadly be classified into two ways 

1) Invasion of Cuba:- 

This was too risky because it was an open act of war. Which will be an open invitation to the Soviet Union.  It would have been a disaster because the fight between two nuclear superpowers can destroy the world. Moreover, the blame for the first strike would have been on the USA. John F Kennedy was not interested in winning a war by killing millions of people.

2) Naval Blockade of Cuba:- 

This way if USSR wants to deliver nuclear warheads to Cuba, USSR will have to attack the American Navy. Thus will put the blame of the first strike on the USSR. This will also act as an extra head to prevent a full-scale war.

Conclusion 

Fidel Castro wanted USSR to attack the USA with nuclear weapons. He was ready to let Cuba burn to give rise to an international revolution. John F Kennedy nor Khrushchev was interested in a nuclear war.

On 22nd Oct 1962, Kennedy gave his famous speech. He said, “It shall be the policy of this nation to regard Anu nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the USA, requiring a full retaliating response on the Soviet Union.”

On 27th October 1962, President Kennedy agreed not to invade Cuba and Khrushchev agreed to remove the missile.

Republic gram 

Sujeet Amberkar 

Insta:- @republic_gram_28